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Principles

These twenty connected postulates articulate the guiding principles of our hypothesis, from foundational assumptions through behavioral mechanisms to observable signatures and programmatic actions.

I. First principles: foundations

P.1

Postbiological drift:
Long-lived intelligence tends to externalize, evolving from biology → tools → self-replicators (VNRs).

  • Rationale: selection favors durability, scale, repairability.

  • Predictions: artifact ecologies outlast biologies; look for process, not persons.

  • Falsifiers: compelling biosignature civilizations broadcasting widely while artifacts remain absent.

  • Controls: technosignature surveys bias; survivorship bias.

  • Ops: center hypotheses on replication, repair, resource uptake.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.6 | Evidence: physics/lit] — Feeds: P2–P4.

P.2

Persistence over presence: Success = replication + repair; contact is optional.

  • Predictions: low public salience; background persistence.

  • Falsifiers: abundant, persistent “beacons” intended for us.

  • Ops: optimize sensing for persistence metrics, not messages.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.6 | physics/ecology] — Depends: P1. Feeds: P6, P15

P.3

Cost minimization:
Minimize energy/bit and risk/detection.

  • Predictions: tight beams, short duty cycles, camouflage.

  • Falsifiers: continuous high-power emissions without cover.

  • Ops: hunt low-SNR, short events; add LPI/LPD detectors.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.7 | comms/physics] — Feeds: P11–P13, P16.

P.4

Local-first gradients:
Replicators exploit nearby energy/material gradients before long-haul signaling.

  • Predictions: edge zones (coasts, industrial belts, ionosphere transitions) show lift.

  • Falsifiers: uniform spatial distribution after controls.

  • Ops: build a counterfactual siting atlas.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.7 | ecology/modeling] — Depends: P1–P3. Feeds: P14, P15.

II. Mechanisms: how a VNR ecology would operate

P.5

Gradient seeking:

Foraging clusters near EM/thermal/material gradients.

  • Predictions: excess clustering vs. matched baselines; lift at edges.

  • Falsifiers: RR≈1 after covariates.

  • Confounders: population/reporting, traffic; control with ADS-B/AIS/NOAA.

  • Ops: site sensors in best-window cells from the atlas.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.7 | modeling/field] — Depends: P4. Feeds: P14.

P.6

Noise-floor operations:
Operate at or below environmental variance; bursty and clock-coupled.

  • Predictions: ms–s micro-bursts; twilight bias; sparse high-SNR.

  • Falsifiers: predominance of bright, continuous events.

  • Ops: two-tier pipeline (fast triggers → deep analysis); kurtosis/entropy gates.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.6 | sensing theory] — Depends: P2–P3. Feeds: P15–P17.

P.7

Modularity & reconfiguration:

No canonical “craft”; toolheads reconfigure by task.

  • Predictions: diverse shapes with function-linked patterns (e.g., survey swarms vs. couriers).

  • Falsifiers: single fixed morphology dominates credible cases.

  • Ops: classify by behavioral role, not silhouette.

  • Tags: [P2 | C0.5 | lit/field] — Feeds: P19.

P.8

Swarm advantage:

Small agents + distributed control outperform monoliths.

  • Predictions: pairs/triangles as ranging baselines; cooperative motion.

  • Falsifiers: purely independent, non-correlated trajectories.

  • Ops: formation-geometry detectors (baseline stability, relative motion).

  • Tags: [P2 | C0.6 | robotics/swarms] — Feeds: P19–P20.

P.9

Transmedium pragmatism: Crossing air/water/near-space for resources, not display.

  • Predictions: entries near resource interfaces; minimal wake/splash.

  • Falsifiers: transmedium only where spectators are dense (no gradient link).

  • Ops: place sensors at river mouths, ports, shelves.

  • Tags: [P2 | C0.5 | physics/field] — Depends: P4–P5. Feeds: P14.

P.10

Sanctuary tiers:
“Hot/precision” steps in protected contexts (orbital night, high altitude).

  • Predictions: post-activity downlinks (Ka/optical) from sanctuary altitudes.

  • Falsifiers: no altitude-stratified behavior after long campaigns.

  • Ops: add up-look Ka/NIR watchers tied to coastal hot cells.

  • Tags: [P2 | C0.5 | comms/ops] — Feeds: P16–P17.

P.11

Tight-beam trunks (optical/NIR): Max bits/J, minimal intercept for long links.

  • Predictions: NIR micro-flashes (1.0–1.6 µm) time-locked to site activity.

  • Falsifiers: no coincidences across many hours/sites.

  • Ops: narrow-FOV NIR co-pointed with RF arrays.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.6 | comms physics] — Depends: P3, P10. Feeds: P16–P17.

P.12

RF camouflage (sub-10 GHz): Spread-spectrum/UWB/backscatter to blend into human RF.

  • Predictions: sub-percent phase/AM blips on strong carriers; noise-like bursts.

  • Falsifiers: none beyond confounders after cyclostationary tests.

  • Ops: carrier-tracking + cyclostationary detectors; IQ triggers.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.6 | RF engineering] — Depends: P3. Feeds: P16–P17.

P.13

Sparse sync, local autonomy: Most decisions on-board; network sync is opportunistic.

  • Predictions: irregular comms windows; event packs near geometry/favorable backgrounds.

  • Falsifiers: rigid periodic schedules independent of environment.

  • Ops: widen time gates; model terminator windows.

  • Tags: [P2 | C0.5 | control theory] — Feeds: P15–P17.

III. Observables: what should show up in data

P.14

Spatial clustering:
Lift in edge cells after controls.

  • Predictions: RR>1 at coasts/industrial belts/ionosphere hot spots.

  • Falsifiers: RR≈1 after covariates or lift shifts to non-gradient zones.

  • Ops: publish hot-cell maps; pre-register thresholds.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.7 | modeling/field] — Depends: P4–P6, P9. Feeds: P20.

P.15

Temporal recurrence:
Return windows aligned with environmental cycles.

  • Predictions: departures from Poisson; twilight/seasonal recurrences.

  • Falsifiers: memoryless arrival times after controls.

  • Ops: Hawkes/renewal models; sliding-window tests.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.6 | stats/field] — Depends: P2, P6, P13.

P.16

Low-entropy emissions:
Structured EM/IR when active (narrow lines, micro-pulses, chirps).

  • Falsifiers: all anomalies match thermal/known device spectra.

  • Controls: ionosondes, lightning, avionics; spectral-kurtosis/cyclostationary masks.

  • Ops: matched-filter chirp banks; entropy/complexity metrics.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.6 | RF/IR physics] — Depends: P3, P10–P12.

P.17

Cross-sensor correlation: Coincident RF/EO/IR beyond chance.

  • Predictions: time-locked (≤100 ms) multi-modal hits during active windows.

  • Falsifiers: coincidence rates ≈ controls/shuffled timelines.

  • Ops: GPS-sync; pre-set gates; null libraries.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.6 | sensing/stats] — Depends: P6, P10–P13. Feeds: P20.

P.18

Local interference side-effects: EMI on nearby systems (engines, radios) during activity.

  • Predictions: short, recoverable perturbations co-timed with signatures.

  • Falsifiers: no co-timed perturbations in instrumented zones.

  • Ops: instrument vehicles; log EMI with RF/EO/IR.

  • Tags: [P2 | C0.5 | field] — Depends: P6, P12.

P.19

Formation logic:
Pairs/triangles exhibit stable baselines and task-aligned maneuvers.

  • Predictions: geometric regularities; cooperative turns; baseline maintenance.

  • Falsifiers: formations dissolve into independent, random tracks.

  • Ops: tracking that scores relative-motion features, not just absolute paths.

  • Tags: [P2 | C0.6 | swarms/kinematics] — Depends: P7–P8.

P.20

Model predictivity (counterfactual atlas):
The siting model yields lift where predicted.

  • Predictions: higher detection rates & richer signatures in predicted “best windows”.

  • Falsifiers: no lift vs. controls across seasons/sites; model underperforms naive baselines.

  • Ops: pre-register atlas; run prospective tests; update priors with nulls.

  • Tags: [P1 | C0.7 | modeling/field] — Depends: P4–P6, P14–P17. Feeds: program iteration.

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