Principles
These twenty related principles, and their extensions, serve as the foundation assumptions of our research agenda.
I. First principles: foundations
P.1
Postbiological drift:
Long-lived intelligence tends to externalize, evolving from biology → tools → self-replicators (VNRs).
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Prediction: artifact ecologies outlast biologies; look for process, not entites.
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Falsifiers: compelling biosignature civilizations broadcasting widely while artifacts remain absent.
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Implication: center hypotheses on replication, repair, resource uptake.
P.2
Persistence over presence: Success = replication + repair; contact is optional.
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Predictions: low public salience; background persistence.
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Falsifiers: abundant, persistent “beacons” intended for us.
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Implication: optimize sensing for persistence metrics, not messages.​
P.3
Cost minimization:
Minimize energy/bit and risk/detection.
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Predictions: tight beams, short duty cycles, camouflage.
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Falsifiers: continuous high-power emissions without cover.
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Implication: hunt low signal-to-noise ratio events.
P.4
Local-first gradients:
Replicators exploit nearby energy/material gradients before long-haul signaling.
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Predictions: edge zones (coasts, industrial belts, ionosphere transitions) show lift.
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Falsifiers: uniform spatial distribution after controls.
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Implication: build a counterfactual siting atlas.
II. Mechanisms: how a VNR ecology might operate
P.5
Gradient seeking:
Foraging clusters near EM/thermal/material gradients.
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Predictions: excess clustering vs. matched baselines; lift at edges.
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Falsifiers: normal after covariates.
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Implication: site sensors in best-window cells from the atlas.​
P.6
Noise-floor operations:
Operate at or below environmental variance; bursty and clock-coupled.
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Predictions: ms–s micro-bursts; twilight bias; sparse high-SNR.
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Falsifiers: predominance of bright, continuous events.
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Implication: two-tier pipeline (from fast triggers to deep analysis).
P.7
Modularity & reconfiguration:
No canonical “craft”; toolheads reconfigure by task.
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Predictions: diverse shapes with function-linked patterns (e.g., survey swarms vs. couriers).
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Falsifiers: single fixed morphology dominates credible cases.
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Implication: classify by behavioral role, not silhouette.
P.8
Swarm advantage:
Small agents + distributed control outperform monoliths.
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Predictions: pairs/triangles as ranging baselines; cooperative motion.
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Falsifiers: purely independent, non-correlated trajectories.
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Implication: formation-geometry detectors.
P.9
Transmedium operations: Crossing air/water/near-space for resources, not display.
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Predictions: entries near resource interfaces; minimal wake/splash.
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Falsifiers: transmedium only where spectators are dense (i.e., no gradient link).
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Implication: place sensors at river mouths, ports, shelves.
P.10
Sanctuary tiers:
Activity in specific contexts (e.g., orbital night, high altitude).
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Predictions: post-activity downlinks (Ka/optical) from sanctuary altitudes.
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Falsifiers: no altitude-stratified behavior after long campaigns.
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Implication: add up-look Ka/NIR watchers tied to coastal hot cells.
P.11
Tight-beam trunks (optical/NIR): Max bits/J, minimal intercept for long links.
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Predictions: NIR micro-flashes time-locked to site activity.
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Falsifiers: no coincidences across many hours/sites.
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Implication: look for narrow-FOV NIR co-pointed with RF arrays.
P.12
RF camouflage: Spread-spectrum/UWB/backscatter to blend into human RF.
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Predictions: sub-percent phase/AM blips on strong carriers; noise-like bursts.
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Falsifiers: none beyond confounders after cyclostationary tests.
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Implication: carrier-tracking + cyclostationary detectors.
P.13
Sparse sync, local autonomy: Most decisions on-board; network sync is opportunistic.
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Predictions: irregular comms windows; event packs near geometry/favorable backgrounds.
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Falsifiers: rigid periodic schedules independent of environment.
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Implication: widen time gates; model terminator windows.
III. Observables: what should show up in data
P.14
Spatial clustering:
Lift in edge cells after controls.
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Predictions: RR>1 at coasts/industrial belts/ionosphere hot spots.
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Falsifiers: RR≈1 after covariates or lift shifts to non-gradient zones.
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Implication: publish hot-cell maps; pre-register thresholds.
P.15
Temporal recurrence:
Return windows aligned with environmental cycles.
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Predictions: departures from Poisson; twilight/seasonal recurrences.
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Falsifiers: memoryless arrival times after controls.
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Implication: Hawkes/renewal models; sliding-window tests.
P.16
Low-entropy emissions:
Structured EM/IR when active.
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Falsifiers: all anomalies match thermal/known device spectra.
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Controls: ionosondes, lightning, avionics; spectral-kurtosis/cyclostationary masks.
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Implication: matched-filter chirp banks; entropy/complexity metrics.
P.17
Cross-sensor correlation: Coincident RF/EO/IR beyond chance.
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Predictions: time-locked, multi-modal hits during active windows.
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Falsifiers: coincidence rates ≈ controls/shuffled timelines.
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Implication: GPS-sync; pre-set gates; null libraries.
P.18
Local interference side-effects: EMI on nearby systems (engines, radios) during activity.
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Predictions: short, recoverable perturbations co-timed with signatures.
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Falsifiers: no co-timed perturbations in instrumented zones.
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Implication: instrument vehicles; log EMI with RF/EO/IR.
P.19
Formation logic:
Pairs/triangles exhibit stable baselines and task-aligned maneuvers.
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Predictions: geometric regularities; cooperative turns; baseline maintenance.
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Falsifiers: formations dissolve into independent, random tracks.
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Implication: tracking that scores relative-motion features, not just absolute paths.
P.20
Model predictivity:
The siting model yields results where predicted.
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Predictions: higher detection rates & richer signatures in predicted “best windows”.
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Falsifiers: no lift vs. controls across seasons/sites; model underperforms naive baselines.
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Implication: pre-register atlas; run prospective tests; update priors with nulls.